FilmsEpisode 003 · Power
They Already Decided Who Pays for AI Data Centers
Your electricity bill is up about 40% since 2020, and the largest study on this says data centres are not why. That is not reassurance. It is a delay — because in the ten months to July 2026, American regulators quietly wrote the rules for who pays when the cost does arrive.
- Runtime
- 11:33
- Published
- 7 August 2026
- Primary documents
- 7
- Sources cited
- 10
- Research cutoff
- 6 August 2026
Claim ledger · Episode 003
Every claim, and how far to trust it.
VerifiedA primary document states it.
ReportedA credible outlet states it.
EstimatedA named firm modelled it.
DisputedTwo sides say different things.
GapWe could not verify it.
- VerifiedUS residential electricity averaged 13.15c/kWh in 2020 and 18.44c/kWh in May 2026 — a nominal rise of 40.3%.EIA · Electric Power Monthly · Table 5.3 · released 23 July 2026
- GapThat data centres are the reason household bills rose. Across 2,277 operational data centres and ten years of bills, the measured effect fell to $0.90 a month after controls and was not statistically significant.The study’s own words: the evidence is "weak, mixed, and small in magnitude."Kiran Garimella · Rutgers School of Communication and Information · 22 June 2026
- DisputedWhether data centres are driving electricity costs. Rutgers finds no robust effect on retail bills to 2024; PJM’s market monitor finds data centre load growth is "the primary reason" for capacity prices in 2025–28.Both are correct. Capacity costs reach retail bills with a lag, and the Rutgers window closes before the capacity price rise.Rutgers (2026) · Monitoring Analytics, State of the Market Report for PJM, p.10
- VerifiedPJM approved $1.4bn of grid upgrades specifically for the Data Center Alley reinforcements, and the cost was allocated under Schedule 12 — "shared across all zones."Monitoring Analytics · State of the Market Report for PJM · Jan–Mar 2026 · p.107
- VerifiedPennsylvania’s standard: "If a Network Improvement would not have been needed but for the interconnection of the Large Load Customer, then the costs of the upgrade will be allocated to that customer irrespective of whether other customers will benefit from it."Pennsylvania PUC · Large Load Model Tariff · M-2025-3054271 · Final Order · p.129
- VerifiedThat order is guidance, not a binding rule. The Commission describes itself as "setting guidance in this model tariff."Pennsylvania PUC · M-2025-3054271 · Final Order · p.12
- VerifiedThe Commission judged the "majority beneficiary" standard "difficult to quantify" and adopted a model tariff that does not use the test at all.Pennsylvania PUC · M-2025-3054271 · Final Order · p.28
- VerifiedPPL Electric asked for $356.3m a year more and was approved for $275m on a 5–0 vote; a typical household bill moved from $177.01 to $184.49.Pennsylvania PUC · R-2025-3057164 · order of 4 June 2026
- VerifiedPPL’s signed data centre agreements reached 28.3GW, up from 25.2GW a quarter earlier — a 12% increase in three months.PPL Corporation · Q1 2026 Investor Update · 8 May 2026 · p.7
- VerifiedPPL tells investors its agreements require credit support covering "all project upgrade costs that are socialized."PPL Corporation · Q1 2026 Investor Update · 8 May 2026 · p.7, footnote 1
- VerifiedFERC ordered all six regional grid operators it regulates to justify or reform their large-load interconnection rules within sixty days, under Federal Power Act Section 206.FERC · Show Cause Orders · 18 June 2026
- ReportedMore than thirty states introduced over three hundred data-centre bills in the first six weeks of 2026.MultiState · State Data Center Legislation · 20 February 2026
- ReportedA claim that bills near large data centres had risen "by as much as 267%" was rated Mostly False; the figure described wholesale prices, which are 30–50% of a retail bill.PolitiFact · 12 June 2026
- GapWhether the "but for" test can actually be administered. Identifying which customer triggered which upgrade "can be technically complex and difficult to track."A rule that cannot be administered is not yet a rule. The film ends on this, unresolved.Environmental Defense Fund · comment on the PA PUC large load model tariff
Research cutoff 6 August 2026. Claims are accurate as of that date; the record is not retroactively edited when circumstances change.
Sources reviewed
7 primary sources. Read, not summarised.
- Government statisticsElectric Power Monthly, Table 5.3 — Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate CustomersUS Energy Information Administration · 23 July 2026Residential price series, 2016 to May 2026.(opens on the issuer’s site)
- Academic studyAre Data Centers Raising Your Electric Bill? Mostly Not. Yet.Kiran Garimella · Rutgers School of Communication and Information · 22 June 20262,277 operational data centres, 24 states, 2014–2024.(opens on the issuer’s site)
- Market monitor reportState of the Market Report for PJM, January through March 2026Monitoring Analytics · Independent Market Monitor for PJM · March 2026Capacity market conditions (p.10) and Data Center Alley cost allocation (p.107).
- Regulatory orderLarge Load Model Tariff — Final OrderPennsylvania Public Utility Commission · Docket M-2025-3054271 · 12 May 2026The "but for" cost standard (p.129), guidance status (p.12), majority beneficiary (p.28).
- Regulatory orderPPL Electric Utilities — base rate proceedingPennsylvania Public Utility Commission · Docket R-2025-3057164 · 4 June 2026Approved revenue increase, the vote, the household bill change, the large load tariff.
- Regulatory orderShow Cause Orders — large load interconnectionFederal Energy Regulatory Commission · Federal Power Act §206 · 18 June 2026Sixty-day directive to PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE and NYISO.
- Investor filingQ1 2026 Investor UpdatePPL Corporation · 8 May 2026Signed data centre agreements chart and the "socialized" footnote, p.7.
- Policy trackerState Data Center Legislation in 2026MultiState · 20 February 2026Volume of state legislation in the first six weeks of 2026.
- Fact checkRating on a claim about data centres and electricity costsPolitiFact · 12 June 2026Wholesale prices are not retail bills.