FilmsEpisode 001 · Systems
The Bottleneck That Cost Nvidia $1 Trillion
Revenue up 85%. A trillion dollars of market value gone. Both are true — because the bottleneck moved somewhere Nvidia doesn't own.
- Runtime
- 8:09
- Published
- 22 July 2026
- Primary documents
- 6
- Sources cited
- 24
- Research cutoff
- 13 July 2026
Quarter ended April 26, 2026 · ($ in millions)
Accrued liabilities and other current liabilities
(1) Related to the Groq, Inc. non-exclusive license agreement.
Source: NVIDIA Form 10-Q, filed May 2026. Read the filing
Where the film starts
One line in a quarterly filing: $3,957 million of accrued purchase consideration, footnoted to a licence agreement with the company Nvidia’s customers were switching to.
Everything in this record follows from reading the document rather than the coverage of it. Below is every material claim in the film, filed by certainty, with the source named — including the question the evidence could not answer.
Source ledger · Episode 001
Every claim, and how far to trust it.
VerifiedA primary document states it.
ReportedA credible outlet states it.
EstimatedA named firm modelled it.
DisputedTwo sides say different things.
GapWe could not verify it.
- VerifiedRevenue for the quarter ended 26 April 2026 was $81.6bn — up 85% year over year.NVIDIA Form 8-K · SEC EDGAR · 20 May 2026
- VerifiedData-centre networking revenue grew 199% year over year, to $14.8bn — outpacing compute.NVIDIA Form 8-K · SEC EDGAR · 20 May 2026
- VerifiedSupply commitments stand at $119bn, of which $95bn falls due within this fiscal year.NVIDIA Form 10-Q · Note 10 · Q/E 26 Apr 2026
- VerifiedTotal revenue earned under the August 2025 China H20 licences: approximately $60m.Against a $215.9bn year.NVIDIA FY2026 Annual Report · SEC
- ReportedChina plans to permit limited H200 purchases by a small number of domestic AI firms.Unconfirmed by either government at the research cutoff.The Information · 8 July 2026
- EstimatedNvidia's share of the Chinese AI-chip market fell from roughly 40% to roughly 8%.One firm’s model. Not a fact, and not charted against other estimators.Bernstein Research
- DisputedWhether the $20bn Groq licence structure avoids merger review.Senators asked regulators to examine it. Nvidia maintains it is a licence. No regulator has ruled.US Senate letter, 20 Mar 2026 · NVIDIA response
- GapHow much of Nvidia's reported demand is funded by Nvidia's own investments.Nvidia discloses investment totals, not a customer-by-customer map.Not calculable from public disclosure
Research cutoff 13 July 2026. Claims are accurate as of that date; the record is not retroactively edited when circumstances change.
Documents reviewed
6 primary sources. Read, not summarised.
- SEC filingForm 10-Q, quarter ended 26 April 2026NVIDIA Corporation · May 2026Supply commitments · Groq accrual · customer concentration · revenue by geography(opens on the issuer’s site)
- SEC filingForm 8-K — Q1 FY2027 resultsNVIDIA Corporation · 20 May 2026Revenue, gross margin, segment detail, forward guidance(opens on the issuer’s site)
- Annual reportFY2026 Annual ReportNVIDIA Corporation · 2026China licensing · H20 revenue · the uncodified 15% expectation
- Congressional recordLetter to Jensen Huang on the Groq transactionSen. Warren & Sen. Blumenthal · US Senate · 20 March 2026Deal size and structure · request for DOJ and FTC review(opens on the issuer’s site)
- Regulatory statementPreliminary finding under the Anti-Monopoly LawSAMR · State Administration for Market Regulation, PRC · 15 September 2025The Mellanox conditions · continuing investigation
- Government researchUS Export Controls and China: Advanced Semiconductors (R48642)Congressional Research Service · 19 September 2025Export-control chronology · H20 and B30A context